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So the seventh week of lectures, is

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going to be split into two separate slide
decks.

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So this one I've labeled 7.1, and it'll be
on Lagrange Method.

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So I'll start off talking about the idea
of an

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investment portfolio, and then how you
might want to optimize that.

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So a portfolio, just, you know, if I buy
several

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assets, put them all in one folder, that's
called a portfolio.

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And then the decision I have is, well,
it's sort of two parts.

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Is A, what am I going to buy?

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And I'm going to sort of assume that
that's already been answered for us.

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And then B is going to be, how much of
each thing should I buy?

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And, so, if you have investment goals, you
can choose exactly

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how much you want to buy of each thing, to
satisfy them.

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So, that's what I'll be talking about, so
to setting up

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the problem I want to solve in the first
group of slides.

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Then I'll talk about finding.
So it's, labeled Relative Extrema of

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Functions of Several Variables.

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So we talked about first and second order

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conditions, for maximizing a function of a
single variable.

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And now that we've done some linear
algebra, I can tell

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you what the conditions are for functions
of more than one variable.

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And then we'll look at Lagrange Method,
which is essentially

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trying to do number two, except it also
has some constraints.

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So it says I want to maximize this
function,

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subject to another function being
satisfied.

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in the fourth bit, I'll given example of
that.

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And then in the fifth bit, I'll go back to
one of the

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concepts I'm going to introduce in the

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first bit, called a Minimum Variance
Portfolio.

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And just go through the calculation of
finding that, using the Lagrange Method.

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We'll get started with Optimal Investment
Portfolios.

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So like I, like I just said, a portfolio
is just a collection of n assets.

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So n is going to be some positive integer.
portfolio just means a folder.

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So in the old days I think you, you know,
if I went and bought some

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stock, I actually got paper certificates
that represented

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those assets, and I put them in a folder.

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And so then my folder full of all of my
stocks became known as a portfolio,

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and so the folders are gone but the, the
word has stuck around.

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And I'm going make a vector w where, so i
is going to run from one up to n.

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So n's the total number of assets.

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And then w sub i is going to be the
proportion of the portfolio.

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So value wise, that's invested in each of
the assets.

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So if I made it equally weighted
portfolio, w i would

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be equal to 1 over n for every asset in
the portfolio.

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but there

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are a lot of other ways you could do that.

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You know, I could say well, I think I'm
going to

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make more money on a certain, like in
technology stocks.

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So I might buy technology stocks in a
higher proportion.

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So those w's would be higher, than the w's
for the rest of the assets in the

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portfolio.
And I'll end up the constraint that, so if

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w i is proportions, all of the wi's have
to sum up to one, so I have one portfolio.

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And so you can think about you know, if
you wanted to make this into dollars.

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This one isn't a very useful number, but
you can

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think about it as maybe a thousand or a
million.

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So I have a million dollars to invest, or
I have a thousand dollars to invest.

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And then the Wi would be, the amount of
money invested in each of the assets.

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And just to normalize that, we divide by
the

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total value of the portfolio.

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So you always end up with one on this
side, and proportions on this side.

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And we're also going to say for, to make
the, the problem

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mathematically more easy, we can do

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something called take long and short
positions.

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So, a long position in an asset, is
something everybody is familiar with.

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You go to a market, you buy something, and
now you have the something.

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A short position is sort of a strange
invention, where I can go to a market,

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I can sell something I don't have, I can
take the money, but I have to promise

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that later on I'm going to give the, the
person one of these things back.

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And the way that's going to manifest
itself mathematically, is

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it just means there's no constraints on
each individual Wi.

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So even though they have to sum up to 1,

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I could have one Wi greater than 1, and
then I

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would also have to have some negative Wi's
to balance

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that out, so that this sum is still equal
to 1.

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Then I'm going to have mu IB, something

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called the expected rate of return on an
asset.

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And so there will be one of these for each
asset.

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So that's why it get's a little subscript
i.

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So different assets in my portfolio.

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Some are going to have higher expected
rates of return, than others.

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and generally, those are going to be the
ones that are more risky, too.

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[COUGH]

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So you can think of sigma i squared then.
So ui is the expected rate of return.

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Sigma i squared, is going to be the risk
of asset i.

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And there's also a kind of related
quantity,

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just sigma sub i, which I'll call the
volatility.

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So you can think of this as sort of a
variance

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like quantity, and then sigma is a
standard deviation like quantity.

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And so again, I get one of these for each
asset.

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Then, there'll also be row ij.

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So this is going to be the correlation

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between the returns on the different
assets,

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and I'm going to end up with one row ij
for every pair of assets.

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So that means that row ij is equal to row
ji.

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[COUGH]

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And then once I have all of these inputs,

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I can make the expected return for the
entire portfolio.

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It's just going to be a weigted, so a
linear combination with the,

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the weights, from w of my expected returns
on each of the assets.

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And the risk has this more slightly
complicated formula.

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So you have the weight squared,

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times the risk of each asset.
But then, you

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also have to add in, sort of those extra
contributions to the risk that are

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coming from, from the correlation between
all of the different assets.

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So, well I guess if just looking at this
thing, it's not a very pretty formula.

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So then, first thing I want to do is see,

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is there a nicer way I can write this
down?

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So I'll try doing the same thing using
matrix notation.

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So now instead of having all the, you
know, w1 up

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to wn, I'll just think about that as, as a
single vector.

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And remember when I put a row like this
in, in parentheses, I mean column vector.

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So I'll

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do one vector with the weights in it.

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A second vector with the expected returns
in it.

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So I have a weight for each asset, and an
expected return for each asset.

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Then I can write the expected return, for
the entire portfolio.

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So that's what's on the left-hand side

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here, expected return here for the entire
portfolio.

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And the previous slide, that was just the
sum of Wi times mu i.

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But in matrix vector notation, I can just
write this as W transpose mu.

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The risk, it turns out, that that sum that
I had, that kind of ugly sum on the

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previous slide, can be expressed quite
simply at just W transpose sigma W.

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And here this sigma, so this is not
singular values,

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this is the covariance matrix for the
returns of the assets.

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And so that's going to look like this.

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So on the diagonal, I have the, the risk
of each individual asset.

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And then in the off diagonal entries, I

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end up with the volatility for here, for
instance,

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the volatility of asset 1 times the
volatility of

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asset 2 times the correlation between
those two assets.

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And that's what's going to give me my

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covariance terms.

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And if you look back at that sum, I have
this sort of strange notation of

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1, less than or equal to i, strictly less
than j, less than or equal to n.

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And essentially what that's doing, I'm
just

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trying to sum up over the lower triangle.

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So all of the values that are strictly
below the main diagonal.

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And then I have a 2 in front of that,

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and that's just because this matrix is
going to be symmetric.

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So if I, I have sigma12 row 12, it's the
same as sigma 21 row 21.

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And so I'm basically, I'm summing the main

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diagonal, and then 2 times the lower
triangle.

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And so that, that's what my formula is
giving me.

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And so I, when I'd have this as a, a
vector of

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weight times a variance, covariance matrix
it, it gets a lot more

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compact notation.

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Okay.

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So if I want to use these two formulas
I've come up with now.

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The, the mu and the Sigma, these are
going to

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be properties of the assets that I'm
looking at.

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There, there's something that generally,
the, you know,

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generally the investor doesn't have any
control over.

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You just have to look at historical data
and say, you know, Boeing

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has been producing a return of so much for
the last two years.

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You know, I think it'll probably

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stay about that for the next six months.

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but it's not something, I can't go to
Boeing, for instance,

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and say be less risky to get this number
to go down.

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you know, you're stuck with whatever you
can, you can find out from the market.

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The thing you can select, are the weights
in your portfolio.

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So the investor can select, you know, how
much of Boeing am I going to buy?

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How much of Starbucks am I going to buy?

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How much of Microsoft am I going to buy?

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And, once they've decided on a particular,
vector of weights w, then you can

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figure out what the portfolio return, and
the portfolio risk are going to be.

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And so, how should you go about picking w.

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So we have two notions of optimality that

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I'm going to talk about, now, and later
I'll

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show you, and so in the fifth session I'll
show you how to solve one of these.

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Then hopefully at the end of week eight,
we'll get around to solving the other one.

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So, I can try and design a portfolio to
have a specific expected

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return.
And then, once I have, once I've decided

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I want to have this specific expected
return, then I, I choose w.

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So there going to be a whole bunch of

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choices, that will give me that one
expected return.

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And among all of those, I would want to
choose the portfolio that's going

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to have the minimum amount of risk.

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And so that'll, that'll give me an
optimization

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problem, that I can use to find w.

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So I want to choose w so that the risk of

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the portfolio is minimum, given a certain
level of expected return.

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And then I can solve sort of a related
problem of, I could instead of targeting

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the expected return level, I could say, I
want to have this much risk.

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So if, for some reason, I, you know,

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said, I, I want a very conservative

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portfolio, or I want a high-growth
portfolio.

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I can communicate, you know, some number
of

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some level of risk I'm willing to
tolerate.

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And so if I can tolerate a certain level
of risk, then I want to choose w so that

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my portfolio gives me the highest level of
expected

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return, that I can get at that level of
risk.

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And so both of these turn out

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to be something called constrained
optimization problems.

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So the constraint, is I'm not trying to
maximize the expected return.

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So that would be an unconstrained
optimization problem.

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But I want to maximize my expected return,
subject to

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a constraint oops, sorry I want to
minimize my portfolio risk.

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So in the first one I want to minimize my
risk, subject to the constraint that I'm

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hitting my target expected return.
And in the second, the second task.

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So I have a target level of risk.

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So my constraint is, I want a certain
level of risk in my portfolio.

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And now I want to maximize the expected
return,

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that I can get at that level of risk.

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So they're optimization problems.

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I'm trying

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to find a minimum or a maximum, but I'm
subject to a certain constraint.

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And then there's actually one more
constraint, that's hanging over from a

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previous slide, is that the w vector has
to sum up to 1.

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So, there's two constraints for each of
these.

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So, the first one has expected return, has
to be equal to

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some value, and my portfolio weights have
to sum up to 1.

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And, satisfy those two constraints.

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And then find the one that has the minimum
risk.

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And, and then sort of, related problem for
the second goal.

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And see, generally the way I like to write
these things down.

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So I have a, a minimum variance
optimization.

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So, what I'm trying to do.

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This, this turns out to be something
called the portfolio variance.

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I'm calling it risk,

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because that's a, it's a mathematical
concept, that can be used to

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describe sort of, how spread out the
return from my portfolio will be.

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So how, how far away from the expected
return, do I expect it to be?

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So I want to minimize this quantity.

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So this is minimizing the variance or
minimizing the risk.

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And then I write below that, subject to,
and

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the I just list the constraints that I
have.

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00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:22,776
So

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I've been using e to be a vector of all
one's.

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00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:27,760
So e transposed w.

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That just means that the sum of w, has to
be equal to 1.

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00:14:31,870 --> 00:14:35,240
So my first constraint is that the weights
sum up to 1.

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So I, I spend exactly the amount of money
I have to invest.

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And then the second constraint.

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00:14:44,320 --> 00:14:48,290
So this, I argued before was the expected
return on my portfolio.

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00:14:49,770 --> 00:14:54,189
And I'm trying to minimize the variance,
at at given level of expected return.

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00:14:54,189 --> 00:14:57,569
So I have to choose an expected level of,
of a level of expected

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00:14:57,569 --> 00:15:02,290
return, that I'm calling mu p, so that's
the expected return for the portfolio.

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00:15:03,530 --> 00:15:06,698
And I'm limiting myself to vectors w,

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that satisfy this linear equation here.
So this is the n asset case.

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00:15:12,055 --> 00:15:16,578
So, you can write it all out just, using
matrices and vectors.

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00:15:16,578 --> 00:15:21,170
And we know this doesn't get any more
complicated, as n gets bigger.

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00:15:21,170 --> 00:15:23,294
It's just the matrices and the vectors are

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00:15:23,294 --> 00:15:26,818
getting bigger, but writing it down stays
pretty compact.

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00:15:26,818 --> 00:15:31,080
you can already see what this looks like
just for the two asset case.

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00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:31,728
And this is

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00:15:31,728 --> 00:15:36,192
actually trivial because, if I look at
the, the two constraints, I have

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00:15:36,192 --> 00:15:40,693
two equations and two unknowns.
So there's only one point that's going to

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00:15:40,693 --> 00:15:46,852
satisfy the, the constraints here.
So there's actually no minimization to do.

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00:15:46,852 --> 00:15:49,085
There's just one one portfolio that I
would have here.

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00:15:49,085 --> 00:15:52,652
So, I just wanted to show what it looks
like written out.

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00:15:52,652 --> 00:15:56,981
So this a quadratic form, and it's just
equal

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00:15:56,981 --> 00:16:00,422
to what w transpose sigma w would look

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00:16:00,422 --> 00:16:05,670
like, if you did the, did the matrix
multiplication.

254
00:16:07,020 --> 00:16:11,430
And then my few constraints, are just the
sum of the w's has to be 1.

255
00:16:11,430 --> 00:16:14,277
And the expected return of the portfolio,
has

256
00:16:14,277 --> 00:16:17,700
to equal my pre-specified level of
expected return.

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00:16:19,990 --> 00:16:22,518
So then the other possibility, was to

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00:16:22,518 --> 00:16:25,790
maximize the expected return of the
portfolio.

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00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,040
So, this was my expression for the
expected return.

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00:16:30,040 --> 00:16:33,172
So now I'm going to say maximize, and put
the

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00:16:33,172 --> 00:16:36,942
quantity that I want to maximize on the
first line.

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00:16:36,942 --> 00:16:40,680
And my constraints are going to be, well,
I still

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00:16:40,680 --> 00:16:43,770
have to have my vector w summing up to 1.

264
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,230
But now I have to choose a target level of
risk.

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00:16:48,230 --> 00:16:50,933
So I have to, have to say who ever is
going to do this portfolio

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00:16:50,933 --> 00:16:54,650
optimization problem, you know, this is
the risk level that I would like to have.

267
00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,560
And that's then going to give this
quadratic form, as the constraint now.

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00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:04,022
So I'm, I'm limited to choosing from
vectors, that

269
00:17:04,022 --> 00:17:07,280
are going to give me this level of risk.

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00:17:09,710 --> 00:17:15,260
And so if I write that out pretty much all
that happens is the, the constraint here,

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00:17:15,260 --> 00:17:20,900
or the, the objective here, the thing I'm
trying to minimize, becomes a constraint.

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00:17:22,740 --> 00:17:26,120
I still have the constraint w1 plus w2
equals 1.

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00:17:27,510 --> 00:17:30,480
And now, it's just my expected return that
I'm trying to optimize.

